Months ago, the world learnt about an infectious disease, now
commonly referred to as corona-virus. From Wuhan, China, it was now spreading
around the world. Initially the symptoms included a high temperature and a new
continuous cough, later they were updated to include a loss or change to sense
of smell or taste. Corona-virus usually spreads from person to person through inhalation
of small droplets from an infected person or by contaminated surfaces through
touching of eyes, nose or mouth. Most of the infections are mild to moderate
and do not require any special treatment or hospitalisation. Susceptible
populations include the elderly and immune-compromised individuals.
Before the first cases were announced in sub-Saharan Africa, it
was wrongly assumed black people were immune or the sun prevented or slowed
down the spread. However, we now know this was likely because of insufficient testing.
Like other countries, African countries have implemented some measures
including: - lock-downs, social distancing, washing hands and wearing masks in public.
Other African countries have opted for hardcore herd immunity (more like denying
the existence of the virus).
Months later, surprisingly Africa has reported fewer
infections and deaths compared to the rest of the world. Do not pull out your
vuvuzelas yet, unfortunately the low rates may correspond to the low testing. Sadly,
it has also generated the least information about the nature of corona-virus in
Africa. Data from the first three months, should have informed on: -
- The extent of corona-virus infections in Africa
Three months later, most African countries do not have a
slight indication of the nature and spread of corona-virus. The situation maybe
worse in the herd-immunity countries, where little is known about corona-virus
and citizens are advised to live normally.
- Who are most susceptible?
Largely, we know the elderly and immune-compromised
individuals share a disproportionate corona-virus risk. What does this mean for
Africa’s largely young population? What is the outlook for patients living
under extreme poverty and with other infectious and water-borne diseases? We do
not know how corona-virus looks in Africa and for Africans. We do not even have
a clue, what role some of our common attributes mean for corona-virus.
- How effective are the current strategies?
We can hardly quantify the effectiveness of the measures. How
effective is herd immunity? The countries that opted for herd immunity have not
bothered to share any data to support their strategy. As such, some of the
information reported by some governments are not factual. For example, some
African countries such as Kenya allude to a corona virus curve (increasing
number of infections over time) when daily they report almost similar numbers
of low infections. You cannot flatten an imaginary ‘curve’ or slow the spread
of what we do not know. Sounds very scientific when they say it, but they lack
data (not because corona-virus does not exist) but rather we know it is there,
we just do not know the extent. Further, there is insufficient data to inform on
effective and ineffective measures. A
lock-down maybe an effective short term measure, but long-term it may prove ineffective
more so in developing countries.
- We cannot compare data with other countries
For instance, in the eventuality of a 2nd wave, we
do not know which African country’s measures to adopt. What was the impact of
herd immunity in Tanzania and Burundi compared to partial lock-downs in Kenya
and Uganda? The 2nd wave of the pandemic possibly would find the continent
unprepared and still reeling from the socio-economic effects of the 1st
wave. It seems different African countries are reading from the same script of
inadequate testing, under-reporting of cases, blaming masses for ‘indiscipline’
and claiming ‘gains’ with no supporting evidence. In the absence of sufficient testing
kits, African countries should have sought alternative measures to handle the
pandemic. Proper handling of the data for the last three months would have identified
appropriate measures suitable for Africans to slow down and prevent the spread
of the virus. It would have possibly safe-guarded masses from ill-advised
strategies from tyrants and disapproved myths on the existence of the virus.
Inaccurate information around the covid-19 pandemic is risking
the lives of millions of individuals in Africa. In the absence of factual
information, masses rely on hoaxes and false news. Unfortunately, African
leaders are missing the opportunity to develop African solutions to a problem
in Africa and implement appropriate solutions.
