Coronavirus Africa: The danger is in what we do not know

Months ago, the world learnt about an infectious disease, now commonly referred to as corona-virus. From Wuhan, China, it was now spreading around the world. Initially the symptoms included a high temperature and a new continuous cough, later they were updated to include a loss or change to sense of smell or taste. Corona-virus usually spreads from person to person through inhalation of small droplets from an infected person or by contaminated surfaces through touching of eyes, nose or mouth. Most of the infections are mild to moderate and do not require any special treatment or hospitalisation. Susceptible populations include the elderly and immune-compromised individuals.

Before the first cases were announced in sub-Saharan Africa, it was wrongly assumed black people were immune or the sun prevented or slowed down the spread. However, we now know this was likely because of insufficient testing. Like other countries, African countries have implemented some measures including: - lock-downs, social distancing, washing hands and wearing masks in public. Other African countries have opted for hardcore herd immunity (more like denying the existence of the virus).

Months later, surprisingly Africa has reported fewer infections and deaths compared to the rest of the world. Do not pull out your vuvuzelas yet, unfortunately the low rates may correspond to the low testing. Sadly, it has also generated the least information about the nature of corona-virus in Africa. Data from the first three months, should have informed on: -

• The extent of corona-virus infections in Africa

Three months later, most African countries do not have a slight indication of the nature and spread of corona-virus. The situation maybe worse in the herd-immunity countries, where little is known about corona-virus and citizens are advised to live normally.

• Who are most susceptible?

Largely, we know the elderly and immune-compromised individuals share a disproportionate corona-virus risk. What does this mean for Africa’s largely young population? What is the outlook for patients living under extreme poverty and with other infectious and water-borne diseases? We do not know how corona-virus looks in Africa and for Africans. We do not even have a clue, what role some of our common attributes mean for corona-virus.

•  How effective are the current strategies?

We can hardly quantify the effectiveness of the measures. How effective is herd immunity? The countries that opted for herd immunity have not bothered to share any data to support their strategy. As such, some of the information reported by some governments are not factual. For example, some African countries such as Kenya allude to a corona virus curve (increasing number of infections over time) when daily they report almost similar numbers of low infections. You cannot flatten an imaginary ‘curve’ or slow the spread of what we do not know. Sounds very scientific when they say it, but they lack data (not because corona-virus does not exist) but rather we know it is there, we just do not know the extent. Further, there is insufficient data to inform on effective and ineffective measures. A lock-down maybe an effective short term measure, but long-term it may prove ineffective more so in developing countries.

• We cannot compare data with other countries

For instance, in the eventuality of a 2^nd wave, we do not know which African country’s measures to adopt. What was the impact of herd immunity in Tanzania and Burundi compared to partial lock-downs in Kenya and Uganda? The 2^nd wave of the pandemic possibly would find the continent unprepared and still reeling from the socio-economic effects of the 1^st wave. It seems different African countries are reading from the same script of inadequate testing, under-reporting of cases, blaming masses for ‘indiscipline’ and claiming ‘gains’ with no supporting evidence. In the absence of sufficient testing kits, African countries should have sought alternative measures to handle the pandemic. Proper handling of the data for the last three months would have identified appropriate measures suitable for Africans to slow down and prevent the spread of the virus. It would have possibly safe-guarded masses from ill-advised strategies from tyrants and disapproved myths on the existence of the virus.

Inaccurate information around the covid-19 pandemic is risking the lives of millions of individuals in Africa. In the absence of factual information, masses rely on hoaxes and false news. Unfortunately, African leaders are missing the opportunity to develop African solutions to a problem in Africa and implement appropriate solutions.